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Harold Carmichael was one of the stranger receivers in the history of the NFL.  In the video I've embedded below, you'll see him complaining about the criticism he often got from Philadelphia fans.  "'You're 6-8,' they'd say.  'All you have to do is reach up and get it.  It's that simple.'"  According to Harold, it was not.  It made me wonder - should it be?

I didn't know a lot about Carmichael when we started doing the TLL, and WRs aren't my position, so I still don't know a great deal.  But on first glance, a 6-8 body seems like a giant advantage for a receiver. 

It seems like it would be just that simple - throw it up there, and let Carmichael, or any other 6-8 receiver, go get it.  Randy Moss is big (6-4), and that's what they used to do with him.  Megatron seems huge at 6-5, so how much better would he be if you gave him three more inches?  It seems like his size is a huge part of his dominance, so more size = more dominance.  Right?

It is not that simple.  Simply put, if 6-8 receivers are so great, where are all the 6-8 receivers?  Pro-football-reference.com lists 1,934 wide receivers who have played in the Super Bowl era (1966-current).  The 2010 U.S Census reported that .8% of males aged 25-44 were taller than 6-4; this was true of 70 of the 1,934 receivers who were listed on PFR.  In other words, 3.6% of all receivers who played in the Super Bowl era was taller than 6-4, quadruple the rate of the general population.  So a higher percentage of wide receivers between 1966 and today were 6-5 than Americans, so it does seem like being tall is an advantage.

By way of comparison, basketball-reference.com lists 3,062 people who have played in the NBA over the same period.  Of these, 2,176 were taller than 6-4. or 71.1%  This is 89 times the rate of the general population.  If you're taller than 6-4, you're twenty times more likely to become a professional basketball player than you are to become a pro wide receiver. 

Pro football teams like big receivers, but pro basketball teams like big guys a LOT better.  Two things could explain this preference:

1. Tall people are encouraged to play basketball, so all the tall receivers never make it to the FNFL.  They go play basketball instead.
2. Tall wide receivers aren't actually that good.

Carmichael is not just the NFL's tallest receiver of all time; he's the all-time receiving yardage leader for guys 6-4 or taller, with 8,985 (though 6-5 Calvin Johnson has 7,836 and given his production it seems likely he'll pass him next year; also, 6-5 Plaxico Burress has 8,499, but who knows with that guy?). 

18 of the 70 players at 6-5 or taller have had at least 1,000 career receiving yards, or 25%.  Comparatively, 622 of the 1,934 total receivers in the Super Bowl era have achieved as much, about 32.2%.  So, tall receivers haven't done as well overall as the average ones, but it's a pretty small sample size.

Of the tall, 1000-yard receivers, only 15 players were taller than 6-5.  There was Carmichael at 6-8, and 14 guys at 6-6.  Only one of the 6-6 gained 1,000 yards in his career - Weegie Thompson, who was 6-6 and played six years with the Steelers in the 80s, tallying a career-high of 370 yards in 1988.  In statistical terms, that's .1% of all the receivers in FNFL history.  In other words, if you're taller than 6-5, you're 1/8 as likely to gain 1,000 career receiving yards as someone shorter than you.

It appears that tall receivers are good, but only up to a certain point.  Calvin Johnson = good.  Weegie Thompson = not good.  Harold Carmichael was good, but he was the only guy that tall who was.

Carmichael kicked 100% of the Cardinals' asses in Week 9.  He caught 6 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns to improve the team to 5-5 and keep Philly's playoff chances alive.





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